Breakfast Club Briefings: The UK Economic & Housing Market Outlook
For the final Breakfast Club Briefings event of the year, Oli and Jon welcomed Andrew Wishart, Head of Housing at Capital Economics for a thought-provoking talk on the outlook for the UK’s economic & housing markets.
Capital Economics is a world-leading provider of economic insight, and is relied upon by Institutions from Pension Funds to Governments.
The key issues Andrew covered were:
Mild Recession is still coming: The immediate forecast is for a mild recession that is likely underway or looming on the horizon, despite the better-than-predicted UK financial results over the past 12 months.
Core Inflation Dynamics: The UK’s stubbornly high inflation is being caused by restrictions on supply.
BoE Rate Cut Expectations: Due to this underlying economic situation, Capital Economics anticipate the timeline for the first Bank of England (BoE) rate cut will be later than expected, around November. However, Andrew emphasized that once initiated, the subsequent reductions are expected to be significant, affecting various sectors.
Housing Market Resilience: Addressing concerns about housing affordability, Andrew expressed optimism. He suggested that, despite stretched affordability, house prices are close to bottoming out. This insight is crucial for both buyers and sellers navigating the ever-evolving property market.
Long Road to Recovery: While the stabilisation in house prices is encouraging, Andrew cautioned that a full recovery in mortgage approvals, transaction volumes, and construction activities may not materialise until 2025.
The event was incredibly well received, with attendees from:
London Borough of Waltham Forest
Ealing Council (London Borough of Ealing)
London Borough of Brent
London Newcastle
Thanks again to Andrew for taking the time to speak at our event, and look out for 2024 BCB events very soon!